Project groups

7-1.4 | ECOLOGICAL NICHE MODELLING OF CLIMATE-INDUCED RANGE SHIFTS (2008-2011)

Project leader:
Prof. Dr. Oliver Tackenberg

The aim of this project is to build ecological niche models for more than 100 European plant species that typically disperse through water (rivers, lakes, fens). Our main tasks include:

• Compilation of a geo-referenced database on the current distribution of the selected plant species and their environmental parameters (in particular hydrological and climatic parameters)

• Computation of the ecological niche models

• Simulation of the predicted climate change-driven range shifts for the selected species based on a number of different IPPC scenarios

• Testing of niche conservatism and dispersal limitation hypotheses based on a comparison of current and post-glacial ranges of the species

This project is additionally funded by the German Research Foundation.

Team

Dr. Britta Kunz, Researcher
Sarah Cunze, Ph.D. student

Publications

Cunze, S., Heydel, F. & O. Tackenberg (2013) : Are Plant Species Able to Keep Pace with the Rapidly Changing Climate? - PLoS One: e67909.

Doležal, J., Mašková, Z., Lepš, J., Steinbachová, D., de Bello, F., Klimešová, J., Tackenberg, O., Zemek, F. & J. Kvet (2011) : Positive long-term effect of mulching on species and functional trait diversity in a nutrient-poor mountain meadow in Central Europe. - Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 145(1): 10-28.

Gabrielová, J., Münzbergová, Z., Tackenberg, O. & J. Chrtek (2013) : Can We Distinguish Plant Species that are Rare and Endangered from Other Plants Using Their Biological Traits? - Folia Geobotanica 48: 449-466.

Horn, S., Raabe, A., Will, H. & O. Tackenberg (2012) : TurbSeed—A model for wind dispersal of seeds in turbulent currents based on publicly available climate data. - Ecological Modelling 237-238: 1-10.

Latzel, V., Klimešová, J., Doležal, J., Pyšek, P., Tackenberg, O. & K. Prach (2010) : The Association of Dispersal and Persistence Traits of Plants with Different Stages of Succession in Central European Man-Made Habitats. - Folia Geobotanica, DOI 10.1007/s12224-010-9074-5.

Normand, S., Ricklefs, R.E., Skov, F., Bladt, J., Tackenberg, O. & J.-C. Svenning : Postglacial migration supplements climate in determining plant species ranges in Europe. - Proceedings of the Royal Society B. doi:10.1098/rspb.2010.2769

Reiss, H., Cunze, S., König, K., Neumann, H. & I. Kröncke (2011) : Species distribution modelling of marine benthos: a North Sea case study. - Marine Ecology Progress Series, Vol. 442: 71–86; doi: 10.3354/meps09391
Link to Publication

Tackenberg O., Higgins S., Thuiller W. & H. Will : Sind Pflanzen in der Lage den vorhergesagten klimabedingten potentiellen Arealverschiebungen zu folgen? - BfN Scripten.