Project groups

7-1.2 | MODELLING CLIMATE CHANGE-INDUCED SHIFTS IN ECOLOGICAL AND CLIMATIC NICHES FOR SELECTED MACROINVERTEBRATE SPECIES (2008-2011)

Within this project we model climate-driven shifts in the ecological niches and distribution ranges of numerous benthic invertebrates in Europe. Our investigations focus on stream-dwelling species in submontane and montane regions. For selected species we also aim to predict the magnitude of evolutionary changes in their climatic niches and the significance of their limited dispersion since the last ice-age. This project is carried out in cooperation with Project B1.5  „Plant -Move“ with the ultimate aim of project the changes in spatial distribution of different stream-dwelling-taxa using metadata-analysis.

Milestones

• Compilation of a geocoding databank with information on the current distribution of macroinvertebrates, along with current climatic, hydrologic and other abiotic parameters
 
• Design of ecological niche-models (of all environmental factors) and climatic niche-models (climate-parameters only) based on the above-mentioned data
 
• Forecast of the expected shift in ecological and climatic niches on the basis of different IPCC AR4 scenarios and analysis of the results

 • Creation of climatic niche-models based on past distribution
 
• Revision of the current controversially discussed niche conservatism-hypotheses and dispersal limitation-hypotheses on the basis of a comparison of current and past climatic niche-models and spatial distribution


Publications

Brederveld, R.J., Jähnig, S.C., Lorenz, A.W., Brunzel, S. & M.B. Soons (2011) : Dispersal as a limiting factor in the colonization of restored mountain streams by plants and macroinvertebrates. - Journal of Applied Ecology 48(5): 1241-1250.

Domisch, S., Jähnig, S. C. & P. Haase : Modellierung klimabedingter Arealverschiebungen ausgewählter Makrozoobenthosarten. - Deutsche Gesellschaft für Limnologie (DGL). Erweiterte Zusammenfassungen der Jahrestagung 2009 (Oldenburg), Hardegsen 2010 (in press).

Domisch, S., Jähnig, S.C. & P. Haase (2011) : Climate-change winners and losers: stream macroinvertebrates of a submontane region in Central Europe. - Freshwater Biology 56: 2009–2020.

Domisch, S., Jähnig, S.C., Simaika, J.P., Kuemmerlen, M. & S. Stoll (2015) : Application of species distribution models in stream ecosystems: the challenges of spatial and temporal scale, environmental predictors and species occurrence data. - Fundamental and Applied Limnology 186 (1-2), 45-61.

Jähnig, S.C., Kuemmerlen, M., Kiesel, J., Domisch, S., Cai, Q., Schmalz, B. & N. Fohrer (2012) : Modelling of riverine ecosystems by integrating models: conceptual approach, a case study and research agenda. -Journal of Biogeography 39: 2253–2263. doi: 10.1111/jbi.12009

Jähnig, S.C., Lorenz, A., Hering, D., Antons, C., Sundermann, A., Jedicke, E. & P. Haase (2011) : River restoration success – a question of perception. - Ecological Applications 21: 2007-2015.

Jähnig, S.C., Lorenz, A.W., Lorenz, R.R.C. & J. Kail (2012) : A comparison of habitat diversity and interannual habitat dynamics in actively and passively restored mountain rivers of Germany. - Hydrobiologia 712: 89-104.

Kuemmerlen, M., Domisch, S., Schmalz, B., Cai, Q., Fohrer, N. & S.C. Jähnig (2012) : Integrated modelling of aquatic ecosystems in China: Distribution of benthic macroinvertebrates at catchment scale (in german with english summary). - Hydrologie und Wasserbewirtschaftung 56: 185-192.

Kuemmerlen, M., Petzoldt, T. & S. Domisch (2015) : Ecological models in freshwater ecosystems. - Fundamental and Applied Limnology/Archiv für Hydrobiologie 186 (1-2), 1-3.

Kuemmerlen, M., Schmalz, B., Cai, Q., Fohrer, N. & S.C. Jähnig (2015) : An attack on two fronts: predicting how changes in land use and climate affect the distribution of stream macroinvertebrates. - Freshwater Biology (in press).

Kuemmerlen, M., Schmalz, B., Domisch, S., Kiesel, J., Fohrer, N., Cai, Q. & S.C. Jähnig (2012) : Integration of hydrologic variables in species distribution models of freshwater benthic macroinvertebrates: two case studies. - Deutsche Gesellschaft für Limnologie (DGL). Erweiterte Zusammenfassungen der Jahrestagung 2011, Weihenstephan, Germany.

Tachamo Shah, R.D., Narayan-Shah, D. & S. Domisch (2012) : Range shifts of a relict Himalayan dragonfly in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region under climate change scenarios. - International Journal of Odonatology 15: 209-222.

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